It's rather late to post my analysis (I should've done it this morning). But I guess it's better late than never :)
This time I'm still using the basic analysis technique with BBMA (that's Bollinger Bands and Moving Average).
Let's see first how the monthly (480 period) move first
The MA is rather flat but notice that the price is already below the SD -1 band. It's indicating that there's some effort to turn monthly into downtrend phase from previously normal or sideways phase. The price retested the SD -1 band today but unsuccessful, well, it could mean we might see a longterm downtrend in the near future, we don't know yet since we have to watch also the shorter term moves as well.
Now let's see how the weekly (120 period) is
The price is ranging in normal zone between the weekly MA and SD -1 band. One important thing is weekly MA is already below monthly MA, indicating that the shorter term average is now lower than the longer one, and based on KG's concept we know that big waves are formed by the smaller waves.
So it could mean this weekly MA will lead monthly MA into a downtrend, who knows.
But thing is, currently the price is still within weekly normal zone, so our current assumption is price will be still ranging within the weekly bands, unless the price dives and breaks the SD -1 band, in that case downtrend is confirmed.
And now we'll see how the daily (24 period) is
Here daily is also in ranging phase and looks like the price is trying to break daily SD -1 band, indicating that sellers are trying to take control. Notice also the daily MA is below the weekly MA, again indicating that shorter term average is below the longer one, could it lead to a downtrend? Nobody knows :D
So here our conclusion so far is monthly is in (a beginning of) downtrend phase while weekly and daily are still in sideways phase.
Next thing to do is watch the daily and weekly. If the price dives and breaks weekly and daily SD -1 bands, then downtrend is confirmed, but if the price flies then watch the daily MA and SD +1 bands, weekly SD -1 band and monthly SD -1 band. If those levels broken then daily will be in uptrend phase while weekly and monthly will be in normal or sideways phase, and the next points to watch will be weekly SD +1 band and monthly MA.
Now how do we confirm direction? Use any tool or method you're familiar with. I personally use LSMA and Heiken Ashi.
The most important thing is we already have the "frame", the critical levels within which the price will likely to move.
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