Thursday, March 17, 2011

GBP/USD Analysis 031811

Morning everyone,
Let's see what happens to GBP/USD this morning, starting with monthly



Following the previous downtrend phase monthly is in normal or sideways phase today. In this kind of situation, the price will move in range within SD 1 zone, as we can see here the price is really moving between the MA and SD -1 band. This phase will end if the price moves outside (either up or down) SD 1 zone.

Now let's see how the weekly is



Weekly is in abnormal up or uptrend phase, following the previous normal phase the price is trying to breakout of SD 1 zone, and MA is slightly pointing up. It's an indication that buyers are trying to take weekly into uptrend phase, we don't know whether or not they will succeed. They still have monthly MA to break before the uptrend can continue.

Now let's see how the daily is



Previously daily was in uptrend phase and now the price is in SD 1 zone, so it's in normal phase. We can say this normal phase is a pause or consolidation, we can see the MA is still pointing up sharply and the price is trying to break SD 1 band.
Notice that the daily MA is already crossed the weekly MA up, indicating there might be longer term reversal, we don't know that yet.
Now our final task is watch the daily phase and the price action.
If daily SD 1 band and monthly MA is broken, then daily and weekly will be in uptrend phase the next target could be monthly SD 1 band. On the other hand if those levels hold, then daily and weekly bands should be our focus since weekly and daily will be in normal phase.

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