A Simple Basket Trading Trick

Do you focus only on a single pair or do you have several pairs open before you?
I know some people (they're experts by the way) tell us to stick and focus only to a single pair, but check this picture out (and don't bother with my entry there :D):



Can you get the idea?
By watching several pairs we actually have the advantage, we have a more complete view on a certain currency. In the picture, we can see how the USD is.
Sure it doesn't mean that we will recklessly pull the trigger on every pair each time we see a similar condition on all the pairs, but, it will help us a great deal to make a better judgment and decision.
So everytime you're in doubt of a particular pair, check the other pairs (using the same TF and setup as your current pair) to get a better view, good luck :)

Daily Analysis Feb 21, 2011

Morning everyone :)
Hmmm... good coffee to start my day, hehehe, and an old Guns N' Roses album I just stumbled upon, heh, how much I miss those guys. Sure, they're still touring but with this all new guys, it's just so different.
Well, let's get back to business shall we?

AUD/USD



As we can see price is now at the Buyers level (1.0124). This is a critical point whether or not buyers will continue their hold on the market or will give up their position, we don't know yet.
Now notice the daily is in sideways phase, you can tell from the LSMA slope and candle formation, and price is also between LSMA and BS line. So this is consolidation phase we don't know yet where it will go next.
So our job here is to watch the daily phase and the Buyers level. If daily phase turns into uptrend phase and price is moving up away from the Buyers level, then we can assume buyers have total control of the market and might try to test the High (1.0186).
On the other hand, if daily phase turns into downtrend phase and price is moving down away from the Buyers level, then it means buyers are giving up and the next target might be around the Balance (1.0063).

EUR/JPY



Here buyers tried to break the High (114.01) but failed.
Notice that price is already below the LSMA, meaning the uptrend is weakening altough LSMA slope is still up so there's still possibility of continuation, in fact based on category the daily phase is really in sideways continuation phase.
So here our job is to watch the price action and LSMA. If price continues to move up and break the High, then buyers are really pushing hard and we'll switch our basis to another wave to find the next critical levels that price might go to.
And if price moves down and LSMA turns down, then our next attention will be the Buyers level (113.20).

EUR/USD



Price is already above the Buyers level (1.3665) meaning buyers are now in control and might try to test the High (1.3764).
Daily phase is in sideways continuation phase, it's a pause before deciding where to go next.
So here too our focus will be this daily phase, if the uptrend continue then our next focus will be the High (1.3764), and if buyers decide to give up, then price will pullback to Buyers level (1.3665) and that will be our next focus.

GBP/USD



Here buyers are trying to test the High (1.6279) but notice that price is already below LSMA and its slope is flattening. It's a sign that we might see reversal soon.
So again our focus will be the daily phase, especially the LSMA. If LSMA really turns down then buyers are giving up and price might pull back to Buyers level (1.6200).
And if buyers decide to continue their pressure then our focus will be the High (1.6279).

USD/CHF



Okay here sellers are trying to break the Sellers level (0.9438) to gain total control. So far daily phase is still in downtrend phase although we can see that several last candles formation is rather sideways, so sellers are pausing a little bit.
Here our focus will be the Sellers level, LSMA and price action. If the level is broken, then sellers will have total control and will try to push the price lower and our next attention will be the Low (0.9326).
And if sellers decide to give up, then price will retrace and might go to the Balance (0.9550).

Allright that's all for now, hope it helps, happy trading and have alot of green pips \m/

DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE ANYTIME ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITION, ALWAYS TRUST YOUR OWN ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM

New Experiment

This is a crazy idea I just come up with. It's about creating a ridiculously simple, no brainer trading system that everyone, even kids can follow. No complicated analysis or thinking, no complicated lines and fancy indicators involved, just plain simple stuffs.

Here's the setup:
1. H4 chart
2. LSMA period set to 30, applied to close
3. Stochastic set to 30, 1, 1 and set the levels to 25, 50, 75 instead of 20, 50, 80
4. Heiken Ashi (optional)

The rules are simple:
For buy position:
1. If it's trending down, enter when LSMA turns up and the color changes while stochastic coming from the bottom climbing over 25. Exit when stochastic reaches 50 and price unable to continue, or hold if it turns into reversal.
2. If it's trending up, enter when price is pulling back and bounced at the LSMA. Exit when price crosses down LSMA.
3. Always enter as close as possible to LSMA.
4. Cut loss when price plays across LSMA and LSMA turns the other way.
5. Lock at BEP +1 as soon as you have more than 20 pips profit (or better yet, just close the position :D)

For sell position, just do the opposite :)

I'll start testing it on Monday and see how it works within the next few weeks, focusing on GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Let's see how it turns out...

Chart Analysis Diagram

Daily Analysis Feb 18 2011

Morning everyone...
As usual, let's start the day with coffee, chart analysis, and rock n' roll, I really wish I could go to Iron Maiden concert by the way \m/ \m/

AUD/USD



Allright, yesterday we had the blue KGB levels (the modified fib) as our basis, and last night the high was clearly broken so these levels now are invalid and we'll switch to the bigger wave (the yellow levels) as our basis.
As we can see, price is trying to reach the Buyers level (1.0133) could even try to break that level later, we don't know.
But for now, notice that price already under the LSMA, this is a sign that buyers are pausing to consolidate for awhile. Watch also the LSMA slope is still up, so there's still big probability that buyers will continue their move.
So here we have our focus on the LSMA and the Buyers level. If price continues to move in the LSMA direction, then watch if it can break the Buyers level. If this happens then there's probability that it will try to move higher and might even retest the High (1.0197).
On the other hand, if LSMA turns down then it means buyers are giving up their position and price might be heading towards the Balance (1.0068)

EUR/JPY



Here we have two waves as our reference. Let's start with the big one (the yellow levels).
Here price is above the Buyers level (113.20), so buyers have more than 75% strength and trying to push the price high and might retest the High (114.01).
However, price is pulling back from 113.67, it could mean that's the furthest buyers can go for this moment. So assuming that's the new high, a lower high by the way, here we draw the second KGB levels (the blue levels) to measure the small wave.
Here too buyers are still in control. So here we have the High (113.67) to watch. If this level is broken, then this blue levels are invalid and we'll shift our attention to the yellow levels.
On the other hand, if price is moving down breaking the buyers level (both 113.28 and 113.20), then buyers are giving up their position and our next focus will be the blue Balance (112.88) and the levels below it.
And last thing, notice that daily phase is in sideways phase. Notice that price is moving around the green BS (113.37). This is consolidation or staging phase.
So keep watching this and those KGB levels to determine where the price is heading next.

EUR/USD



We still have the blue levels as our basis.
Here price is moving up away from the Balance (1.3585), buyers start to gain the upper hand. Notice also that daily phase is in uptrend phase.
So based on these, we can assume that price is currently moving up and might heading to the Buyers level (1.3666).
This assumption will fail if price is heading down and play below the Balance (1.3585). In this case, it's the sellers who are getting the upper hand and might push the price lower toward the sellers level (1.3504).

GBP/USD



Okay, yesterday we have the blue KGB levels. Now the price is right at the High (1.6182) and about to break it.
So here in case that level got broken, we draw the second KGB levels (the yellow ones) as backup. Otherwise we still stick to the blue levels.
Now notice the daily phase, it's still in uptrend phase but price is already below the LSMA. It could be a sign that reversal will occur in near time.
So here our job is keep our eyes open and watch how the price and the LSMA react. If LSMA turns down, then our assumption is price is heading towards the Buyers (1.6132) or the Balance (1.6121). Otherwise if buyers decide to resume their move, then price will try to break the blue High (1.6182) or the yellow Buyers (1.6200).

USD/CHF



Here too our previous blue KGB levels are now invalid since the low is already broken. And now, we'll switch to the bigger wave (the yellow levels) for our basis.
As we can see price is in the midway between the Balance (0.9549) and the Sellers level (0.9438). Here sellers have the upper hand although not yet totally in control.
Now notice the daily phase, it downtrend but price already plays above the LSMA. This is a sign that sellers are currently pausing for awhile and there might be some effort to reverse direction.
Notice also the LSMA slope is still down and sharp, so there's still big probability that price will go down and more effort is needed to reverse direction.
So here we have this LSMA and price action to watch. If LSMA turns up, then sellers are giving way and price might go to the Balance. And if price continues in LSMA direction, then sellers resume their pressure and might retest the Sellers (0.9438).

Allright, that's all for today. Hope it helps, happy trading and have a lot of green pips \m/

DISCALIMER: THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE ANYTIME ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITION, ALWAYS TRUST YOUR OWN ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM

Daily Analysis Feb 17, 2011

Hi all, as usual, before we jump into the market let's start the day with caffein (hehehe) and some chart analysis. Today I'll start adding the daily phase analysis, that's the greenish LSMA and BS line (it's 24 hourly buyers/sellers strength balance level), to complement the buyers/sellers strength analysis.

Here we go,

AUD/USD



Okay, based on the 24 hourly phase the pair is in strong uptrend phase.
So in this kind of situation, our assumption is up.
However, based on the wave price is still unable to break the Buyers level (1.0038) so buyers are not in total control of the market yet.
So this is our main focus at the moment, if this level is breached, then our assumption is buyers win and will try to push the price up and retest the high (1.0071).
On the other hand, if the level holds, then price will try to retest the Balance (1.0005).

EUR/JPY



Yesterday we had the blue levels as our basis. And as we can see its high (113.44) already broken (and yes, I had to cut my loss :D), so these levels are now invalid and we'll just ignore them, and then we switch to the bigger wave (the yellow levels) as our basis.
But first based on the 24 hourly (or daily) phase, the price is in strong uptrend phase, so our current assumption is up.
Then based on the yellow levels, we can see that price is above the Buyers level (113.20), so here buyers are winning and trying to push the price high.
So if this uptrend continues our first focus will be the high (114.01), otherwise if buyers decide to give up their position then first focus will be the Buyers level (113.20)

EUR/USD



Daily phase is strong uptrend.
Based on wave, price is still around the balance (1.3585) which is neutral or gray zone, nobody has the upper hands. This is a tricky situation but we can refer to the daily phase to determine the next move.

GBP/USD



Daily is in medium uptrend phase. Here buyers are winning but not too strong yet.
Based on the wave price is in the midway between Balance (1.6083) and Buyers (1.6232). So here buyers are starting to gain the upper hand and trying to push the price away from the Balance. If this continues, then the Buyers level will be our focus, otherwise price will return to retest the Balance.
So here we have these two levels to watch.

USD/CHF



Okay, daily is in strong downtrend phase, it's sellers winning.
Price is already below the Sellers level (0.9597), so based on the wave sellers have total control with more than 75% strength.
Here our first assumption is price will try to retest the low (0.9550). However if sellers decide to give up their position and price move up breaking the Sellers level, then our assumption is price try to find the Balance (0.9644).

Allright people, that's all for now, hope it helps, happy trading and have alot of green pips :D

DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE ANYTIME ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITION, ALWAYS TRUST YOUR OWN ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM

Daily Analysis Feb 16, 2011

Hi all, here's my daily analysis (just really simple analyis, newbie style :D) on my favorite 5 pairs, check it out :)
Oh, first I have to say that THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL by any means, all I'm sharing is my view on the market condition, some critical levels to watch and the direction where price might be heading.

AUD/USD



Based on the downwave A-B, price is currently near the level Sellers (0.9972), in fact it looks like it's already breached. It means sellers are losing strength, now they're under 75%. So there's good chance price is heading towards the Balance (1.0005).
Notice that LSMA is still pointing down but flattening and price is already above it. This means there's an effort to reverse direction.
So if price continues to play above the level Sellers and LSMA points up, then direction is confirmed and price (probably) will move towards the Balance.
On the other hand if price plays below the Sellers and LSMA points down, then it's possible that price will retest the low (0.9939).

EUR/JPY



Here buyers are currently dominating the market with more than 75% strength, and we can see price is trying to break and turn the LSMA up. So here we have the High (113.44) to focus on, assuming price is heading up off course. But if this level holds and price goes down, then our next focus will be the level Buyers (113.10).

EUR/USD



Yesterday the price was just playing or pivoting around the level Sellers (1.3504). It could means that sellers haven't decided if they will hold and continue the downmove or close their positions and give way to buyers.
It's kinda tricky situation really, but we can watch the LSMA for direction.
At this moment we can see that LSMA is pointing up and price too is moving up breaching the level Sellers. So, our current assumption is sellers are losing strength and the next destination might be the Balance (1.3585).
But if price moves down and LSMA points down, then we can assume that sellers will continue their hold on the market and our first focus will be the Low (1.3424).

GBP/USD



Here we can see buyers are still in control. The price is trying to break and turn the LSMA up. If they succeed, then the next logical target will be the High (1.6181). But if buyers decide to give up their position, then our first focus will be the level Buyers (1.6126).

USD/CHF



Here we can see that the price is at the Balance (0.9661). This is the level where buyers and sellers strength is equal, and there's 50-50 chance it can go either way.
In this situation we might want to refer to the bigger picture analysis (it's in my previous post on Saturday) and use the LSMA for direction.

Allright, that's all for today.
I hope you find this useful, happy trading and have a lot of green pips \m/\m/

DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE ANYTIME ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITION, ALWAYS TRUST YOUR OWN ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM

Weekly Analysis Feb 12, 2011

Hi all, hope you're having a wonderful Saturday night :)

Okay, this time I'll share you my (newbie) weekly analysis for next week, starting on Monday, Feb 14, it's valentine day by the way.
I hope you find it useful, especially to those who trade on weekly basis, even if you don't, you might still find some critical levels to watch this week, and hopefully enough profit to buy your loved ones something (like diamond ring for instance :D).

Let's begin with AUD/USD



Here we have the upwave A-B is the basis for the current downwave.
As we can see price had reached the Balance (0.9998) and currently still playing around that level. This level is very crucial since we can assume it as the zero point, where buyers and sellers strength is equal, and there's 50-50 chance the price will go either way.
If price goes up, then buyers start to gain more strength than sellers and the next target could be around the level Buyers (1.0097).
And if price goes down, then it's the sellers start to gain strength and it might down to the level Sellers (0.9899).
Now notice that the LSMA is still pointing down while price is trying to play above it. It's a sign that selling pressure is loosening although more effort is needed to actually reverse direction. We can say that sellers are pausing for a moment and God only knows where the next move is.
So keep your eyes on the balance and LSMA to see where the price is heading next week.

Next is EUR/JPY



Here the downwave A-B is our basis.
The current upwave has reached the level Buyers (113.21) and it seems unbroken so far. This level is critical since here the percentage of strength is 75%-25% in buyers favor. If it's broken, then buyers will have total control of the market and might push the price higher although we don't know yet if they can break previous high (114.01) to set a new one. Otherwise the price will try to move towards the Balance (117.40).
Notice the LSMA already flattening and price is below it. It's a sign that sellers are trying to reverse direction.

EUR/USD



Based on the upwave A-B, price is already down below the level Buyers (1.3619), meaning buyers are losing strength.
Also notice the LSMA is pointing down, so here there's good chance that price is heading towards the Balance (1.3370). Unless of course if the price moves up above the level Buyers and LSMA points up, then it means buyers regain strength and will push the price up.

GBP/USD



Well, here too buyers are losing strength. Price is below level Buyers (1.6044) and LSMA is pointing down. So the next destination might be around the Balance (1.5810).
Unless of course if price moves up above the level Buyers and LSMA points up, then it means buyers regain their strength and might push the price up.

USD/CHF



Allright, based on the downwave A-B buyers are in total control of the market and it looks like it's about to test the high (0.9786). If this high is broken, then it means the small wave already move according to the bigger wave, in this case we'll switch our preference to a bigger wave, the downwave M1-M2. There we can see there's the level Buyers at 0.9872, and this could be the next target.
But if buyers can't break the high, then there's a chance price will retrace and retest the level Buyers (0.9671) or the bigger wave Balance (0.9682).
Notice the LSMA is still up so at this current moment, our assumption is still up.

Allright, that's all for tonight, hope you find this useful, enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trade next week, see you later \m/\m/

DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change anytime according to market condition without prior notification, and always trust your own analysis and system :D

Daily Analysis 11 Feb 11

Hi all, today I think I'd better start writing in English, well maybe not everything but some things, just to make it more internationally readable I guess :D

Okay, I'll start with my daily analysis (just a newbie analysis mind you :D) on some pairs I regularly watch everyday (it's low spread wide range pairs :D). My analysis is only on intraday basis since that's how I trade, but this analysis technique can be applied and work well on longer term basis.

I'm starting to use a much more simpler setup than usual because I basically love simple stuffs and hate to complicate things (I would trade naked chart if I could, it's just that, I can't LOL).
My setup consists of range calculator, KG Balance (KGB, that's a modified fibo used to measure buyers/sellers strength) and LSMA (this is to determine the direction), and Heiken Ashi for the trigger.
This setup is based on KG's concept of wave, buyers/sellers strength, and regression.
The basic idea is we want to measure who's in control of the market at the current wave, set some critical levels to watch (some people might call these levels s&r or pivot, whatever, it's just a name) and see the tendency of price direction.
One thing to keep in mind is, in KG analysis concept the very basic tenet in chart analysis is: NOBODY KNOWS WHERE AND HOW FAR THE PRICE MIGHT MOVE

And one more thing, since Tokyo is closed today we might expect low volatility (boring) today until Europe session later today, but this analysis is valid regardless.

Okay, let's start with AUD/USD



The current downwave from point B is the reactional wave of the upwave A-B. So we'll use the upwave A-B as our basic reference.
As we can see the price is already below level BS (1.0032). This level is the balance, where buyers and sellers at about equal strength. So if price is moving down away from this level, we can assume that sellers start to take over.
This is confirmed by the direction and shape of the LSMA. So the next logical level to watch is the level S (or sellers, at 0.9948). This level is where the buyers/sellers strength is at 25%-75% in sellers favor.
If this level is broken, then we can assume that sellers have total control of the market and might push the price lower, altough we don't know yet if they can set a new low lower than previous low.
But if price bounces at this level, then we can assume price is still consolidating and will move in range around the level BS and S.
Watch the LSMA and price action to confirm direction.

Next is EUR/USD



Again, I'll draw KGB level from A-B as our basis.
Here price is coming from above testing the level S (sellers, 1.3567). This is a critical level that determines whether sellers can totally control the price or not.
If this level is broken, then sellers will try to push the price lower and might test the previous low.
Otherwise it will be still in balance area, or consolidation, and price will range around level S and BS.
Again, watch the LSMA and price action for confirmation.

And now GBP/USD



Okay, the KGB A-B is our basis here.
As we can see price is below the level BS (1.6098) and trying to test the level S (1.6054). So again, we have this level as a critical level to watch.
If it's broken, then sellers will have total control of the market, otherwise it will be still ranging around the BS and S.
And again, watch the LSMA and price action for confirmation.

Allright, only these three pairs for today since I really have something to do. Hope I can be back early before Europe session today, wish me luck :D

Hope it helps, happy trading and have alot of green pips \m/\m/


DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change anytime according to market condition without prior notification, and always trust your own analysis and system :D

Analisa Harian 10 Feb 11

Bismillah

Okey, analisa kondisi lapangan sebelum sesi Europe hari ini

AUD/USD



1. Monthly
- Kondisi (technically) SC up menyusul TU strong sebelumnya
- Posisi harga sudah berada dibawah level Buyers (1.0105), indikasi buyers sudah melemah
- Lsma monthly juga kelihatan mulai mendatar
- Disini bisa disimpulkan buyers sudah banyak melemah, kemungkinan harga akan mencari rumahnya di BS monthly (1.0013)

2. Weekly
- TD strong, breakout dari sideways sebelumnya
- Range mingguan baru sekitar 45% dari rata-rata mingguan, jadi masih ada space cukup untuk turun
- Disini kesimpulannya adalah turun

3. Daily
- TD strong
- Range 78% dari range rata-rata harian, jadi mungkin saja tidak akan bergerak terlalu jauh dari sini sebelum pullback atau rehat dulu sejenak

Di pair ini berdasarkan ketiga acuan tadi saya berasumsi harga sedang berusaha mencari BS monthly (1.0013). Tinggal memperhatikan kondisi daily, terutama berdasarkan range, apakah dia akan langsung turun terus atau rehat dulu sejenak sebelum lanjut turun, atau malah dia akan berbalik.
Yang akan saya lakukan, opsi pertama kalau harga terus turun saya akan tunggu dan memperhatikan kondisi daily apabila harga mencapai daerah BS monthly. Dan opsi kedua apabila harga ternyata rehat dulu di daily, saya akan memeperhatikan bagaimana kondisinya disitu dan mencari posisi sell apabila harga lanjut turun, dan mencari posisi buy apabila ternyata harga berbalik naik.

EUR/JPY

1. Monthly
- Secara teknis kondisinya adalah TU strong, mulai breakout dari konsolidasi sebelumnya
- Bentuk lsma yang tadinya down sekarang mulai datar
- Range monthly juga masih ada ruang untuk terus naik
- Kesimpulan disini adalah monthly berada dalam fase awal TU strong, tinggal dimonitor saja selanjutnya apakah harga akan benar-benar naik atau tidak

2. Weekly
- Kondisi TU strong
- Range masih ada ruang untuk terus naik
- Kesimpulan disini, masih naik

3. Daily
- Kondisi SR down, mulai konsolidasi setelah naik cukup jauh sejak tanggal 8 kemarin
- Harga berada disekitar level buyers (113.07), ini menjadi titik perhatian. Bila harga tembus kebawah level ini, maka kemungkinan dia akan mencari BS daily (112.80), tetapi bila dia gagal menembus level buyers maka kemungkinan dia akan naik lagi dengan tujuan terdekat ada disekitar lsma daily atau high 113.24

Kesimpulan disini weekly dan monthly cenderung naik, tinggal menunggu daily yang masih konsolidasi.
Yang akan saya lakukan, dalam kondisi daily yang seperti ini saya lebih suka mencari posisi sell entry sedekat mungkin lsma daily. Sedangkan untuk mencari buy, saya lebih suka menunggu ketika harga berada disekitar lsma weekly yang naik tajam dan melihat lagi bagaimana kondisi daily disitu nanti

EUR/USD



1. Monthly
- SR down, atau konsolidasi
- Harga berada di tengah-tengah antara level buyers (1.3672) dan lsma monthly
- Dilihat berdasarkan BS strength, buyers sebetulnya lebih dominan tetapi berdasarkan lsma kecenderungan arahnya adalah turun
- Untuk sementara ini sepertinya harus menunggu sampai harga berada di dekat level Buyers atau lsma dan lihat kondisinya

2. Weekly
- Secara teknis kondisinya TU medium, tapi saya lebih suka menyebutnya masih dalam fase konsolidasi atau sideways karena harga masih berada dibawah level buyers (1.3748)
- Harga kelihatannya tertahan dan menjauhi level buyers, jadi kemungkinan dia akan kembali menuju BS weekly (1.3668), ini diperkuat juga dengan posisi lsma yang masih ada dibawah BS

3. Daily
- SR down
- Harga sudah berada dibawah level buyers daily (1.3713), lsma daily juga arahnya turun, jadi kemungkinan besar BS daily (1.3679) tujuannya

Disini daily dan weekly dalam kondisi sideways atau konsolidasi dan harga tampaknya sedang menuju ke BS daily dan weekly.
Kalau hanya berdasarkan kedua acuan ini, saya lebih suka menyebut kondisi ini kondisi grey, tapi disekitar BS daily dan weekly juga ada level buyers monthly (1.3672). Sepertinya level ini nanti yang akan menentukan, apabila harga menembus dan bermain dibawah level buyers monthly ini, maka kemungkinan harga akan terus turun dan mencari BS monthly, tetapi apabila harga berbalik naik, maka kemungkinan uptrend akan terjadi.

GBP/USD



1. Monthly
- SR down
- Harga tampaknya sedang konsolidasi dan mencari BS monthly (1.5999)
- Kondisi ini akan berubah menjadi uptrend apabila harga naik menembus lsma monthly dan lsma monthly arahnya naik

2. Weekly
- Kondisinya berlawanan dengan monthly, SR up
- Disini harga juga tampaknya sedang konsolidasi dan mencari BS weekly (1.6152)
- Kondisi weekly ini akan berubah menjadi downtrend apabila harga bergerak turun menembus lsma weekly dan lsma weekly arahnya turun

3. Daily
- SR down
- Sedang konsolidasi juga, dan harga sekarang berada di BS daily (1.6075), disini adalah grey

Ini adalah kondisi yang membingungkan karena weekly dan monthly dalam fase yang berlawanan dan batas-batasnya berdekatan, sementara daily terjepit di tengah-tengahnya. Bisa dikatakan ini adalah fase transisi.
Kejelasan arah baru bisa didapat apabila weekly break kebawah dan masuk fase downtrend atau monthly break keatas dan masuk ke fase uptrend. Sementara ini, sepertinya tunggu saja dulu.

USD/CHF



1. Monthly
- TU medium (technically), tapi saya lebih suka menyebutnya masih konsolidasi
- Harga masih bermain antara BS monthly (0.9546) dan Buyers monthly (0.9656), jadi disini untuk sementara dua level ini yang jadi perhatian

2. Weekly
- SR Down
- Harga sekarang berada disekitar level Buyers weekly (0.9593), bermain dibawah level ini maka kemungkinan harga akan menuju BS weekly (0.9526) dan bermain diatas ini maka kemungkinan harga akan menuju lsma weekly atau high (0.9659)

3. Daily
- SR Up
- Harga sekarang sudah berada disekitar BS daily (0.9604), ini adalah zona grey

Okay, disini fokus perhatiannya ada di weekly, terutama level buyers weekly (0.9593).
Apabila harga terus berada diatas level ini, maka saya akan cenderung mencari buy dengan menunggu konfirmasi pada kondisi daily, sedangkan apabila dia turun dibawah level ini, maka saya akan mencari sell juga dengan menunggu konfirmasi di kondisi daily.

Okay, sekian dulu, semoga bermanfaat, happy trading and have alot of green pips \m/
Alhamdulillah....

DISCLAIMER: Analisa bisa berubah sewaktu-waktu mengikuti kondisi market tanpa pemberitahuan terlebih dahulu :D

Dibalik Sebuah Konsep, part 7

Mengukur Buyers&Sellers Strength

Okay, sekarang kita akan belajar mengukur kekuatan buyers/sellers.
Sebelumnya siapkan dulu tools yang akan digunakan, yaitu KG Balance.
KG Balance ini adalah fibonacci retracement yang levelnya dimodifikasi menjadi seperti ini:
-

Sebagaimana prinsip paling dasar KGers yang berbunyi: kita tidak tahu kemana dan sampai mana harga akan bergerak, kita sebetulnya.
Satu hal lagi adalah kondisi pergerakan harga di market, apakah itu trend naik, turun ataupun sideways adalah relatif. Tergantung dari titik mana sampai titik mana kita melihatnya.

Pada prinsipnya kita akan mengukur buyers/sellers strength di gelombang sekarang berdasarkan gelombang yang telah terjadi sebelumnya. Jadi misalnya kita sekarang akan mengukur gelombang naik, maka kita akan mencari gelombang turun sebelumnya sebagai acuan, sebaliknya juga kalau kita akan mengukur gelombang turun maka kita akan mencari gelombang naik sebelumnya sebagai acuan.

Dibalik Sebuah Konsep, part 6

KG BUYERS/SELLERS STRENGTH CONCEPT

Bismillah,
Lanjut lagi menulis, setelah hampir sebulan menghilang XD

Oke, here we go.
Apa sih sebetulnya yang menggerakan harga forex?
Jawabnya adalah: transaksi.
Atau lebih tepatnya lagi, akumulasi volume transaksi yang terjadi di market. Jadi bukan indikator, bukan news, bukan juga analisa, tapi transaksi.
Masalah jenis transaksinya apa (buy atau sell) yang akan diambil, itu terserah kebijakan masing-masing pelaku pasar saja. Dan news, indikator, analisa, dan lain sebagainya itu hanya merupakan salah satu alat atau bahan pertimbangan dalam mengambil keputusan.

Ada empat jenis transaksi sebetulnya di forex market, yaitu:
1. Open Buy
2. Close Buy
3. Open Sell
4. Close Sell

Dari empat jenis ini, open buy dan close sell dikategorikan sebagai buy sedangkan open sell dan close buy dikategorikan sebagai sell. Jadi secara umum hanya ada dua jenis transaksi, buy dan sell.

Harga bergerak naik atau turun akan sejalan dengan akumulasi transaksi yang terjadi saat ini. Secara akumulatif karena memang pada setiap saatnya transaksi buy dan sell ini dengan volume yang bervariasi terjadi di market. Jadi apabila secara akumulatif transaksi buy lebih besar dari sell, otomatis harga akan naik, dan apabila secara akumulatif transaksi sell lebih besar dari buy, maka otomatis juga harga akan turun.
Ini sebetulnya adalah hukum supply and demand, dimana supply atau sell yang berlebih akan menyebabkan harga turun dan demand atau buy yang berlebih akan menyebabkan harga naik.

Berapa pastinya jumlah volume transaksi yang dibutuhkan untuk menggerakan harga 1 pip saja, baik itu naik atau turun, memang belum bisa diketahui dengan pasti. Tetapi yang pasti adalah nilainya sebanding. Artinya volume yang dibutuhkan untuk menaikan harga 1 pip sebanding dengan volume yang dibutuhkan untuk menurunkan harga 1 pip.
Jadi kita sebetulnya bisa mengukur kekuatan pelaku pasar berdasarkan panjang gelombang atau panjang pergerakannya.

Misalnya sekarang harga bergerak naik sejauh 10 pips, kita tahu bahwa secara akumulatif transaksi buy (baik itu jenisnya open buy maupun close sell) lebih dominan hingga bisa menggerakan harga sejauh itu. Atau bisa dikatakan buyers memiliki strength lebih besar dari sellers hingga bisa menggerakan harga sejauh 10 pips.
Nah untuk menurunkan lagi harga sejauh 10 pips ini, maka dibutuhkan transaksi kebalikannya (sell) dengan akumulasi volume atau tenaga yang sama besar.
Apabila misalnya ternyata sellers hanya mampu menurunkan harga sejauh 2 pips saja, bisa dikatakan sellers hanya mampu menggerakan harga 20% saja dari jarak yang mampu dicapai oleh buyers. Jadi secara perbandingan kekuatan, kekuatan buyers masih jauh diatas sellers. Lebih tepatnya lagi perbandingan kekuatan buyers dan sellers adalah 80%-20%.
Dan bila misalnya ternyata sellers mampu menurunkan harga sejauh 5 pips, ini bisa dikatakan bahwa buyers dan sellers memiliki kekuatan yang berimbang, dengan kata lain, 50%-50% atau balance.
Lalu lebih jauh ternyata akhirnya sellers mampu menurunkan harga sampai 10 pips, atau harga kembali lagi ke titik semula, maka disini keadaannya menjadi terbalik. Disini perbandingan kekuatan antara buyers dan sellers adalah 0%-100%.

Okay, seperti itulah kira-kira dasar pemahamannya (mudah-mudahan saya ngga salah menafsirkan tulisan-tulisannya Eyang KG nih, hehehe)
Nanti Insya Allah lanjutkan dengan bagaimana cara mengukur dan aplikasinya dalam analisa chart.
Alhamdulillah, sekian dulu...