Daily Analysis Feb 17, 2011

Hi all, as usual, before we jump into the market let's start the day with caffein (hehehe) and some chart analysis. Today I'll start adding the daily phase analysis, that's the greenish LSMA and BS line (it's 24 hourly buyers/sellers strength balance level), to complement the buyers/sellers strength analysis.

Here we go,

AUD/USD



Okay, based on the 24 hourly phase the pair is in strong uptrend phase.
So in this kind of situation, our assumption is up.
However, based on the wave price is still unable to break the Buyers level (1.0038) so buyers are not in total control of the market yet.
So this is our main focus at the moment, if this level is breached, then our assumption is buyers win and will try to push the price up and retest the high (1.0071).
On the other hand, if the level holds, then price will try to retest the Balance (1.0005).

EUR/JPY



Yesterday we had the blue levels as our basis. And as we can see its high (113.44) already broken (and yes, I had to cut my loss :D), so these levels are now invalid and we'll just ignore them, and then we switch to the bigger wave (the yellow levels) as our basis.
But first based on the 24 hourly (or daily) phase, the price is in strong uptrend phase, so our current assumption is up.
Then based on the yellow levels, we can see that price is above the Buyers level (113.20), so here buyers are winning and trying to push the price high.
So if this uptrend continues our first focus will be the high (114.01), otherwise if buyers decide to give up their position then first focus will be the Buyers level (113.20)

EUR/USD



Daily phase is strong uptrend.
Based on wave, price is still around the balance (1.3585) which is neutral or gray zone, nobody has the upper hands. This is a tricky situation but we can refer to the daily phase to determine the next move.

GBP/USD



Daily is in medium uptrend phase. Here buyers are winning but not too strong yet.
Based on the wave price is in the midway between Balance (1.6083) and Buyers (1.6232). So here buyers are starting to gain the upper hand and trying to push the price away from the Balance. If this continues, then the Buyers level will be our focus, otherwise price will return to retest the Balance.
So here we have these two levels to watch.

USD/CHF



Okay, daily is in strong downtrend phase, it's sellers winning.
Price is already below the Sellers level (0.9597), so based on the wave sellers have total control with more than 75% strength.
Here our first assumption is price will try to retest the low (0.9550). However if sellers decide to give up their position and price move up breaking the Sellers level, then our assumption is price try to find the Balance (0.9644).

Allright people, that's all for now, hope it helps, happy trading and have alot of green pips :D

DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE ANYTIME ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITION, ALWAYS TRUST YOUR OWN ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM